The outbreak of growth is difficult to continue the photovoltaic industry is to improve economics

December 31, 2020

After experiencing explosive growth in the past two years, whether the PV market can maintain rapid growth in 2018 has received much attention. Experts believe that high growth is difficult to continue, but stable development is still expected. Affected by policy factors, PV poverty alleviation and distributed PV are still optimistic. In the future, PV industry enterprises will mainly compete for technology and efficiency, strive to reduce costs, gradually realize parity Internet access, and further improve the economic efficiency of photovoltaic power generation. Due to factors such as electricity price adjustment and distributed market outbreak, the growth rate of China's PV market has exceeded expectations significantly last year. Some people are worried that the ultra-high-speed growth of the photovoltaic industry in the past two years will overdraw the future growth momentum. In this regard, experts said that the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry in the past two years may not continue, but will continue to maintain relatively stable growth; the future of the photovoltaic industry will mainly compete for technology and efficiency, and strive to reduce costs, and gradually achieve parity online. The scale of the market is rapidly expanding. The grid operation of photovoltaic power generation recently released by the National Energy Administration shows that the scale of the photovoltaic power generation market has expanded rapidly in 2017, with a newly installed capacity of 53.06 million kilowatts, of which, the photovoltaic power station is 33.62 million kilowatts, an increase of 11% year-on-year; 19.44 million kilowatts, an increase of 3.7 times. By the end of December 2017, the national installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 130 million kilowatts, of which, the photovoltaic power station was 105.9 million kilowatts, and the distributed photovoltaic was 29.66 million kilowatts. From the perspective of the new installed layout, the trend from the northwest to the central and eastern regions is obvious. The newly installed capacity in East China was 14.67 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times, accounting for 27.7% of the country. The newly installed capacity in Central China was 10.64 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 70%, accounting for 20% of the country. The newly installed capacity in the northwest region was 6.22 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 36%. The development of distributed photovoltaics continues to accelerate, with new installed PV installations in Zhejiang, Shandong and Anhui provinces accounting for 45.7% of the country. Yuan Me, director of Sumeda's energy market, told Economic Daily that the explosive growth of the PV market was due to the release of the “Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” by the National Energy Administration in 2017. Promoting the development of the photovoltaic industry norm has played a positive role; on the other hand, as of the middle of last year, the industrial layout of upstream wafer manufacturers has been in place, thus ensuring product supply. In addition, local governments are also actively promoting the development of civilian distributed PV, which has prompted PV companies to devote themselves to the distributed PV market. Yang Liyou, general manager of Jinneng Technology, believes that the rapid growth of installed capacity has benefited from three reasons: the scale of the front runner base has expanded, and the scale of the front runner base has been expanded from the first batch of 1 GW to 5.5 GW after the successful completion of the first batch of runners. The outbreak of the distributed market, with the emergence of high-efficiency components cost-effective advantages, distributed promotion of a variety of business models, the cumulative installed capacity in 2017 exceeded the cumulative installed capacity in the past five years; photovoltaic poverty alleviation as an important form of accurate poverty alleviation, also affected by policy Strong support. “The internal driving force of investment in the photovoltaic industry is also related to the current technology upgrade and system cost reduction. At the same time, the demand of foreign emerging markets is also increasing.” Liu Yong, senior vice president of Zhonglai Co., Ltd. said. Distributed PV is still optimistic about whether the PV market can maintain rapid growth in 2018. Yi Yuechun, deputy director of China Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Institute, said that the photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly in recent years. With the advancement of technology and industrial upgrading, the industry will maintain relatively stable growth. Of course, the rapid growth in the past two years is also difficult to sustain. Many PV companies are still optimistic about the market. In order to accelerate the progress of the industry, the single crystal leading Longji shares combined with its accumulated production technology and cost control advantages over the years, plans to expand the capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers in the next three years to meet the growing needs of downstream users in the industry. According to the announcement, Longji will steadily expand the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers. At the end of 2017, the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers will reach 15 GW, and strive to reach 28 GW by the end of 2018 and 45 GW by the end of 2020. Tongwei shares also announced that it will gradually complete the production of high-efficiency crystalline silicon cells with a total output of 20 GW in the next three to five years according to market demand. For the growth point of the future market, Yang Liyou said that according to the latest announced photovoltaic power project price policy, in addition to the village-level photovoltaic poverty alleviation power station, the subsidies for photovoltaic power plants and distributed projects will be fully reduced, while in more than 10 provinces such as Shanxi and Shandong. The PV indicators are all used in centralized PV poverty alleviation stations. It is expected that PV poverty alleviation in 2018 will become an important part of the PV market. At the same time, as the cost of electricity and electricity continues to decline, people's willingness to use green power continues to increase. It is expected that the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics will continue to grow in 2018. “In the past, the layout of PV power plants was mainly based on the Three North Regions. In the future, various utilization methods will be gradually promoted throughout the country. Previously, we proposed that PVs should gradually achieve user-side parity online access; with the rapid development of technology and cost reduction, some power generation sides will also Gradually achieve parity online." Yi Yuechun said. Continuous innovation can reduce the cost of the future, and photovoltaic power generation will gradually shift from auxiliary energy to alternative energy. This requires further improvement in the economics of photovoltaic power generation through technological advancement and industrial upgrading. "Efficiency and cost are always the key words for the development of the photovoltaic industry. Technology innovation is the core. Improving efficiency is the key. Constantly reducing costs is the pursuit of all PV companies." Li Wen, president of Longji Leye Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. said. The data shows that in 2017, the global solar energy investment reached 2 trillion yuan, and China exceeded 350 billion yuan, which is a hot plate for energy investment. In the past 8 years, photovoltaic costs have dropped by 90%. At present, China's photovoltaic power generation is growing rapidly and gradually moving toward mainstream energy. Li Wenxue said that all these achievements depend on technological progress. China's PV industry has developed to the present, technological innovation has emerged in an endless stream, and various high-efficiency technologies have flourished. Especially under the guidance and guidance of the national leader plan, high-efficiency technology has become the core of technological innovation. The efficiency is improved and the speed is obviously accelerated. Taking Longji as an example, in 2015, it took the lead in achieving 100% diamond wire cutting of monocrystalline silicon wafers, and also cultivated the domestic diamond wire cutting industry chain, which supported the promotion of diamond cutting technology in the whole industry. The promotion of this technology has brought revolutionary development to the entire solar industry, saving 12 billion yuan per year for the photovoltaic industry and accelerating the pace of PV-level price online. "In 2017, for the first time, we increased the entry criteria for front-runners and set up a front-end base. In the future, it is very possible to achieve a fair price online at the front runner base and frontier base through the application of scale effect and cutting-edge technology. It is expected that the market will be efficient and super in 2018. The demand for efficient production capacity will be even stronger." Yang Liyou said.

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